AI and the Travel Booking Funnel: A Bill or an Eviction Notice for OTAs?

Part 2 of 2 in the series AI vs. the Travel Booking Funnel.

AI is coming for the travel booking funnel. Will it hand OTAs a bill or an eviction notice?

• So far, bookings haven't moved much. Booking Holdings says AI assistants still drive less than 1% of room nights.

• Hotel brands are hedging. Marriott, Hilton and Hyatt pitch AI as a direct-booking opportunity while also flagging it as a competitive risk.

• But the plumbing is being built. Mirai's ChatGPT plugins already let hotel groups like Porcel Hoteles take direct bookings through AI.

That creates two threats to OTA economics

• The Tax: OTAs keep the booking, but AI platforms take a toll. At 12% to 14% take rates, every 10 bps of gross bookings paid to AI agents could cost roughly 70 to 80 bps of operating margin.

• The Displacement: Hotels connect directly to AI assistants, bypassing the OTA altogether.

But don't write the OTA obituary yet. Someone still needs to aggregate inventory, process payments and fix broken trips. AI could also bring OTAs new customers, improve conversion and lower marketing and service costs.

My call: 60% odds a major hotel brand books guests directly inside an AI assistant at scale within six months.

What I'm watching in 3Q earnings: AI share of room nights, hotel direct-booking mix and OTA marketing spend.

Tax or displacement? Or do the OTAs adapt and strengthen their moat?

Background: Hospitality Net

Originally posted on LinkedIn on October 11, 2026. Join the discussion on LinkedIn.